Despite its size, the pet industry, as a whole, is under analyzed.  That is not to say there is a lack of analysis, but rather a lack of diverse perspectives.  The reason for the homogenous set of  “points of view” is largely structural.   There are a handful of very big companies that drive the pet industry from the product side — Mars, Nestle SA, Procter & Gamble, Del Monte, etc.  However, we have limited transparency into the granular performance of their pet brands because they either have no reporting obligation (Mars) or their pet business is quite small relative to their overall income statement or balance sheet.  Notably Nestle, who controls some 30% of the pet food business, does not report  its pet food segment separately.  The same can be said about pet retail — Petco, Petsmart, Wal Mart.   The primary industry reporters — Packaged Facts, Mintel, IBIS — rely, largely, on the same survey methodology.

Given the above, you can understand why I was excited to get my hands on Todd Hale’s “State of the [Pet] Industry 2011”.   Todd is SVP, Consumer Shopper Insights for The Nielsen Company.  Simply put, I think Todd brings a different and unique perspective to the table.  Because his firm has access to unprecedented amounts of transaction data, he is best situated to look at the industry from a consumer standpoint, as opposed to from a product or individual retailer standpoint, and of equal significance, put pet consumer behavior in the context of consumer behavior in other retail environments.

With that as my long winded set up, here are some key takeaways from his presentation (all data credits to The Nielsen Company):

  • The Polarized Consumer.  We often talk about consumers in terms of median household income.   One can then analyze consumer behavior across stratified income bands.  This is really nothing new.  But what Nielsen scan data (actual product movement and basket purchases) provides is the opportunity to, on a rolling 52-week basis, analyze purchasing behavior within these income bands and compare the results to prior year periods.   This data does not need a +/- 4% confidence interval because it relies on actual transactions, as opposed to sentiment.  What Hale’s data shows is that the consumer population is very polarized.  While the wealthiest 20% of the consumer population have exited the recession, as evidenced by growth in shopping trips and shopping dollars, all other income bands have contracted.   This demonstrates the fragility of the retail industry and validates how important the premium demographic is to the health of all retail, not just pet.   Using the same methodology, Hale shows that that the affluent (those with household incomes in excess of $70,000) purchase 40% of the pet food and consume 42% of the pet services, despite making up less than a third of the consumer population.   As a result, it is easy to conclude that the pet industry remains as vulnerable as other retail categories.
  • Pet is En Fuego.  If you look across U.S. retail formats, as measured by store counts, value and convenience are winning.   The number of warehouse clubs, supercenters, dollar stores, supermarkets and convenience stores have all increased since 2005.  Only drug and mass merch have contracted.   However, when you dig into the specialty retail category, home improvement and pet have shown meaningful store count growth during this same period, with pet doors increasing 43% and home improvement moving 10.5% to the positive.  Further, pet is the only store category that has shown positive household penetration over the past 10 years, increasing from 30% to 32%.   In short, pet specialty industry has been star performer in the retail landscape over the past six years.
  • PetSmart is More En Fuego.  We have covered the performance of PetSmart on this blog in some depth.  Our historical analysis demonstrated that once PetSmart stopped focusing on topline growth and embraced a balanced scorecard (same store sales, product level gross margin, earnings per share) it quickly became the premier retailer in the pet industry.   Hale puts PetSmart’s performance in perspective across all retailers, noting that PetSmart has produce a 14 quarter “winning streak” of positive comp store sales.   Nordstrom came in second in the discretionary spending category at six quarters.  Among all other retailers (discretionary, value, club), only Sam’s Club and the “dollar” stores (Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, Dollar General) have comparable winning streaks, with only Family Dollar and Dollar General having higher average comp store sales since 2008 than PetSmart.  While the bar for domination of the pet specialty channel is in fact low, Hale’s data proves how impressive the company’s performance has been relative to all retailers.
  • Inflation is Hurting/Helping Pet.  Based on Nielsen scan data for the past two years, prices have risen across the board, with the exception of alcoholic beverages and pet food, though pet food prices increased over 4%  in 2011.  Pet care and pet treats also experienced inflation of 2% and 3% respectively in 2011.   While inflation is hitting consumers at times when incomes are down, price increases have helped the pet industry grow to new heights (sort of perverse).  Notably, Hale’s data shows more pet industry inflation than PetSmart has reported, meaning price increases at grocery and mass have been more substantial than in pet specialty.
  • Brands Hang Tough.   The recession kicked off a new chapter in the branded versus private label tug-of-war across consumer categories.   As Hale points out, private label brands hovered at 19% – 21.5% of unit volume from 2005 to the middle of 2008.  During the recession, store brand volume shot up and has remained at 21.5% – 23.5% post-recession.   Since 2007, store brands have grown 21% in dollar volume versus 3% for branded items.  Notably within pet, all major categories have a lower penetration of store brands than the product average, and private label penetration has fallen in pet care, food and treat over the past year.   This is logical given that store brand attachment falls as income rises, and the pet industry is driven (per above) by the higher income demographics.

In summary, Hale’s data provides us a different lens through which to view the pet industry.   The dominant perspective, to date, has been that of the product provider, and we are led to believe that the manufacturer dictates to the customer what he/she wants and consumes.  Hale helps us understand that the tail may in fact be wagging the dog — consumer behavior, and the ability of pet retailers to incent that behavior, may have been the more powerful force in driving the growth of the industry over the past five years.

/bryan

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